USDA: “Farm Sector Weakness Forecast To Continue”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) updated its 2016 Farm Sector Income Forecast today.  In part, ERS stated that, “Net cash farm income for 2016 is forecast at $94.1 billion, and net farm income at $71.5 billion. Both measures are forecast to decline for the third consecutive year after reaching recent highs in 2013 for net farm income and 2012 for net cash income. Net cash farm income is expected to fall by 13.3 percent in 2016, while net farm income is forecast to decline by 11.5 percent. These declines follow the 17.5- and 12.9-percent reductions in net cash income and net farm income, respectively, that occurred in 2015.”

Graphic from USDA-ERS

Today’s ERS update indicated that, “Crop cash receipts—the cash income from crop sales—are forecast to fall 3.7 percent ($7.1 billion) in 2016 as prices continue to decline for most field crops. The crop cash receipts forecast of $182.3 billion is $2.9 billion under the most recent 10-year average. Since hitting a record high in 2012, corn receipts are forecast to fall 37.7 percent over the 4 years through 2016, primarily due to lower prices. Expected further weakening of corn prices would more than offset benefits from production gains, leading 2016 corn cash receipts to fall by $2.9 billion (6 percent) from 2015…[and]…Increased soybean production is expected to be offset by falling prices, leading soybean cash receipts to decline 0.4 percent in 2016.”

ERS also pointed out that, “Direct government farm program payments are forecast to rise by 24.8 percent in 2016 to $13.5 billion (see table on government payments)…[O]perators with corn base acres received almost 84 percent of Agriculture Risk Coverage-County (ARC-CO) 2015 payments, reflecting both corn price declines and the large number of corn base acres on which payments are made. About 65 percent of ARC-CO 2016 payments are expected to go to producers with corn base acres, 15 percent to wheat base producers and another 15 percent to producers with soybean base acres. The forecast increases in 2016 payments reflect expected declines in seasonal average crop prices. Payments are targeted to begin after October 1, 2016, following adjustments for adjusted gross income, payment limits, and other factors.”

In a bit of good news, the ERS update added that, “After reaching record highs exceeding $390 billion in 2014, farm production expenses are forecast to dip for the second consecutive year in 2016.”

More specifically with respect to rent expenses, ERS stated that, “Net rent expense-—the amount paid to rent land, adjusted for the landlord’s share of government payments and insurance indemnities and net of any expenses paid by the landlords—-is forecast to decrease by 2.2 percent to $19.6 billion in 2016. As in recent years, the majority of net rent expense is forecast to be paid to nonoperator landlords (farmland owners who do not themselves farm) as opposed to landlords who are also operators.”

In a related item regarding cash rent expenses, DTN Executive Editor Marcia Taylor reported on Friday that, “University of Illinois economist Gary Schnitkey agrees most cash renters need closer to $4 corn to break even. But if corn prices average only $3.50 per bushel next season — with no farm program payments on the horizon — even many high-yielding 200-bushel Illinois farms could lose $65 an acre on $245 cash rent, Schnitkey estimates. (Soybeans at $9 or $9.50 offer a better prognosis.)”

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U.S. Corn Farmer: “We cannot withstand $4 a bushel corn.”

Heather Hadddon and Julie Jargon reported yesterday at The Wall Street Journal Online that, “The U.S. is on track this year to post the longest stretch of falling food prices in more than 50 years, a streak that is cheering shoppers at the checkout line but putting a financial strain on farmers and grocery stores.

“The trend is being fueled by an excess supply of dairy products, meat, grains and other staples and less demand for many of those same products from China and elsewhere due to the strong dollar. Lower energy costs for transportation and refrigeration also are contributing to sagging food prices, say economists.”

The Journal writers noted that, “Nationwide, the price of a gallon of whole milk on average was down 11% to $3.06 in July over a year ago; the price of a dozen large eggs fell 40% to $1.55 in the same period.”

The article pointed out that, “Those great bargains at the grocery store are spreading pain across the Farm Belt. Farmers and ranchers are getting less money for raw milk, cheese and cattle, forcing them to slash spending. Tractor suppliers like Deere & Co. are cutting production due to the farming slump.”

More specifically, the Journal article indicated that, “Ben Moore, a sixth-generation farmer who grows corn and soybeans on some 5,000 acres in Indiana and Ohio, said 2016 is shaping up to be his least profitable year in 20 years. Facing weak crop prices, he is making do with his current tractors and combines rather than upgrading his equipment, and is pushing for lower prices on pesticides, seeds and fertilizer.

“On Monday, corn futures, which peaked in 2012 at more than $8 a bushel, closed at $3.11 ¾ a bushel, a seven-year low, on the Chicago Board of Trade.

“‘We cannot withstand $4 a bushel corn,’ Mr. Moore said.”

Meanwhile, Doug Cameron reported in Monday’s Wall Street Journal that: “With global grain bins already brimming, the prospect of another huge harvest has weighed on crop prices, and the government expects farm profits to be at their lowest level in more than a decade.”

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Start-Ups in Silicon Valley Narrow Their Focus, Now Talking About Fiscal Responsibility

Katie Benner reported on the front page of yesterday’s New York Times that, “Silicon Valley start-ups were set to face a great reckoning in 2016. Yet the crash hasn’t happened.

“Last year, many tech executives, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs were convinced that a multiyear boom that had propelled young companies to great heights could no longer sustain itself. Some said it would end apocalyptically. Michael Moritz, an influential start-up investor at Sequoia Capital, declared many of the companies ‘the flimsiest of edifices.’ Bill Gurley, a venture capitalist at the Silicon Valley firm Benchmark, proclaimed that the start-ups would bite the dust. ‘Winter is coming,’ others intoned.

“The worst fallout may yet come, but many of the start-ups have hung on. Across Silicon Valley, engineers are still commanding annual salaries that average $136,000, according to Hired, a recruiting firm. Demand is brisk for $4 buttered toast, and office space rents remain near record highs. The biggest start-ups, like Uber and Airbnb, continue to land billions of dollars in funding. And investors are shoveling money into venture capital funds, which raised so much cash in the first half of this year that it rivaled the amount raised in all of 2015.”

Yesterday’s article indicated that, “For all of the hand-wringing, ‘there just hasn’t been much of a downturn,’ said Paul Buchheit, a managing partner at Y Combinator, a prominent start-up incubator that nurtured companies including Dropbox and Airbnb. ‘I don’t even see many companies going out of business.'”

Ms. Benner also pointed out that, “Silicon Valley’s innovation engine continues even with the survival of so many start-ups — and not just the fittest — because of the abundance of venture capital. There has been a proliferation of new enterprises in up-and-coming fields like artificial intelligence, robotics and virtual reality, creating potential areas of growth for Silicon Valley technologists to build on next.

“For techies who have been grappling with the not-yet-a-crash environment, the adjustment in their outlook is evident in their speech. Entrepreneurs who once talked about how fast their start-ups were growing are now spouting from a bible of fiscal responsibility.”

The New York Times article added that, “A Silicon Valley start-up crash may still take place, especially if the stock market tanks or if there is a financial shock to the system. And some tech investors like [ Mr. Gurley, the venture capitalist, are still sounding the alarm. In April, Mr. Gurley wrote a blog post that laid out how venture investors remain overcapitalized to a dangerous degree, which made investing in start-ups more risky.

“While there has been no crash since then, he does not regret any prognostications. He said he was glad if young companies had stopped overspending because of his warnings.”

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Shadow Cast on the Spread of Municipal Broadband Networks, Implications for Rural Businesses

Cecilia King reported in today’s New York Times that, “On the first day of the harvest last week, a line of trucks brimming with sweet potatoes rolled into Vick Family Farms, headed for a new packing plant that runs on ultrafast internet.

“The potatoes were tagged with online bar codes to detail the plots where they grew, their types of seed, and dates and times picked. On a conveyor belt, 50 flashing cameras captured and sent images of the spuds to an online program that sorted the Carolina Golds by size and quality and kicked them into boxes.

“The Vick family built the plant only after the nearby city of Wilson [North Carolina] agreed early last year to bring its municipal broadband service to the 7,000-acre farm. Since the plant opened in October, the farm’s production and sales to Europe have jumped.”

The article noted that, “But now, after a legal battle between state and federal officials over broadband, the farm and hundreds of other customers in the eastern region of the state may get unplugged.

“‘We’re very worried because there is no way we could run this equipment on the internet service we used to have, and we can’t imagine the loss we’ll have to the business,’ said Charlotte Vick, head of sales for the farm.

“Vick Family Farms got caught between the Federal Communications Commission and North Carolina state legislators over the spread of municipal broadband networks, which are city-run internet providers that have increased competition in the broadband market by serving residents where commercial networks have been unwilling to go.”

The Times article indicated that, “This month, the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit upheld restrictive laws in North Carolina and Tennessee that will halt the growth of such networks. While the decision directly affects only those two states, it has cast a shadow over dozens of city-run broadband projects started nationwide in recent years to help solve the digital divide.

“In siding with the states, the court hobbled the boldest effort by federal officials to support municipal broadband networks. While the court agreed that municipal networks were valuable, it disagreed with the F.C.C.’s legal arguments to pre-empt state laws.

“Now, cities like Wilson fear they have little protection from laws like those in about 20 states that curb municipal broadband efforts and favor traditional cable and telecom firms. City officials say cable and telecom companies that have lobbied for state restrictions will be encouraged to fight for even more draconian laws, potentially squashing competition that could lead to lower prices and better speeds to access the web.”

Today’s New York Times article added that, “The F.C.C. does not plan to appeal the federal court’s decision ‘after determining that doing so would not be the best use of commission resources,’ Mark Wigfield, a spokesman for the agency, said in a statement. That means municipalities that want to keep expanding their municipal broadband networks will have to fight to overturn state laws on their own.

“The legal fight is being closely watched by other cities in states that have similar broadband restrictions, such as Colorado and Washington. Even big cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco are in the early stages of exploring municipal broadband networks, which they view as crucial to serving low-income families who cannot afford service from cable and telecom companies.”

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Tech Startup Products For Enterprises Still Face Resistance When it Comes to Revenue

Angus Loten reported in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal that, “When Haier America’s Deanna Johnston needs to update or fill gaps in the company’s information-technology systems, she looks at products and services offered by startups.

“But even after a trial run, she rarely buys them, Ms. Johnston said.

“Instead the appliance maker’s chief information officer said she often uses cheaper prices offered by startups as a bargaining chip in price negotiations for similar tools sold by large enterprise IT vendors.”

The Journal article stated that, “As Haier and other large corporations become increasingly digital, they are spending more time checking out technology offered by small, independent tech firms.

“Yet startup products and services for enterprises, while more accepted than a few years ago, still face significant resistance on the path toward revenue, CIOs and industry analysts say.”

Thursday’s article explained that, “Only 23% of 112 large corporations in a recent survey said working with startups was very important, according to MassChallenge, a startup accelerator, and software consulting firm Imaginatik PLC. Respondents included insurers, manufacturers and software firms, among other companies across a range of industries, roughly half of which had at least 10,000 employees and more than $5 billion in annual revenue.

“Jonathan Lehr, managing director of Work-Bench Ventures, a venture-capital firm for enterprise tech startups, said the problem can be simply ‘getting in the door and then demonstrating value,’ rather than offering lots of free trials that don’t convert into paid licenses.”

The Journal article added that, “A handful of enterprise IT startups are fetching billion-dollar valuations. In North America, 51 of 94 startups with valuations over $1 billion—known as ‘unicorns‘—sell business technology, according to CB Insights.”

Mr. Loten also pointed out that, “Revenue-generating IT startups can become attractive targets for acquisitions, leaving CIOs to speculate about the fate of fledgling products and services once they are swallowed up by larger vendors, said Jim Ferrato, CIO of call center operator IBEX Global Solutions PLC…[H]aier’s Ms. Johnston said she agrees that startups are best deployed for functions that aren’t essential to core business operations. For instance, the company is currently using a free employee iPad check-in tool developed by a startup, she said. ‘If they go out of business, we’ll just switch over to a paid version with little disruption.'”

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Tech-Design Firms Want More Cash as Equity in Startups Wanes

Nathan Olivarez-Giles reported on Thursday at The Wall Street Journal Online that, “Two years ago, when startups were flush with money, a wave of hardware and software design companies were eager to work with them and get paid in a mix of cash and equity—stakes that they hoped would one day pay off handsomely. But as startups increasingly struggle, those designers are getting more selective.”

Mr. Olivarez-Giles noted that, “These days, however, the dynamic has changed. Austin, Texas-based Argodesign and other smaller design firms increasingly want to be paid in cash to balance out earlier startup gambles.

“Since last fall, venture capitalists have been scrutinizing the values of startup shares after years of pumping up valuations and focusing on growth. Volatility in the public stock market and a lack of initial public offerings have discouraged investors, including mutual-fund companies, which in recent months have marked down the values of their stakes in more than a dozen startups.

“The median valuation of startups fell in the first quarter to about $18.5 million from a high in last year’s third quarter of $61.5 million, according to Dow Jones VentureSource.”

The Journal article added that, “However, [product designer Mark Rolston] added that he still believes equity startups will lead to financial success in the long run. ‘As long as we maintain a balance between the cash side and the equity side, we can make a strong business,’ he said. ‘We really believe we’ve got blockbusters’ in their cash-equity lineup.”

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Decline Seen in Existing Home Sales

Laura Kusisto and Eric Morath reported in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal that, “Sales of previously owned homes slipped in July, a sign that higher prices are taking a bite out of U.S. housing demand.

“The pace of existing-home sales decreased 3.2% last month from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. The decrease was the first since February.”

The Journal article noted that, “‘You’re running out of customers,’ said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at data company CoreLogic. ‘There’s a logjam: You’ve got first-time buyers who can’t buy, trade-up buyers who can’t move up, and it’s grinding to a halt.'”

The Journal writers pointed also pointed out that, “One worrying sign in these markets is that inventory is swelling, suggesting demand is slipping as prices grow out of reach for many buyers.

“‘Prices have gotten so high and they’ve grown so quickly in these hot markets and people are afraid…maybe the housing market is at all-time highs. Last time there was this big correction,’ said Nela Richardson, chief economist at real-estate brokerage Redfin.”

The Journal article added that, “Limited supply helped fuel a 5.3% gain in the median home price, to $244,100, in July from the year-earlier month. Production of new single-family homes, which accounts for a small share of the overall housing market, is still about 30% below the long-term historical average, though a report this week showed a 31% jump in July from the same month last year.

“So far this year, existing home sales are trending near the pace recorded just before the recession began. Still, the pace is well below the peak reached in 2005, when more than 7 million properties were sold.”

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Executive Branch GMO Rules Moving Forward

Bloomberg / BNA writer Casey Wooten reported this week that, “The Agriculture Department’s efforts to craft rules for implementing a nationwide, mandatory system for labeling genetically modified ingredients is making progress, but USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said it’s too soon to know how much can be accomplished before the next administration takes office.

“‘It’s a little early to say how much we’ll get done,’ Vilsack told reporters Aug. 23 following a speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

“Vilsack said he hopes to ‘establish a very strong foundation and framework‘ in the rulemaking process so that the next administration won’t have to deal with the more intricate and difficult decisions in implementing the law (Pub. L. No. 114–216), signed by President Barack Obama on July 29.”

The BNA article noted that, “The USDA has two years to finalize rules implementing the labeling system under that law. During that time, it will have to navigate a myriad of challenges, such as avoiding conflicting label regulations by coordinating with the Food and Drug Administration, defining which kinds of food fall under the scope of the law and allocating limited department resources, analysts say.

“The law will require food makers to disclose GMO information using on-package text, a USDA-created symbol or a QR code scanned by a consumer’s smartphone.

“Vilsack said the working group tasked with creating GMO labeling rules is meeting regularly to plan out the regulatory process.”

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Advice For Startups, Entrepreneurs – From Priceline Co-Founder

Matthew Patane reported in today’s Des Moines Register that, “Iowans and others looking to start their own companies need to look at everyday problems and think of how to fix them, not just complain about them, according to Jeff Hoffman, an entrepreneur and speaker.

“‘If you want to be an entrepreneur, next time you see a problem that seems to be bothering a lot of people, instead of going home and complaining, stop and say, ‘Could I fix this? Could I make it better? Is there a more efficient way to do this?” Hoffman said.

“Hoffman, who was part of the founding team of online travel website Priceline, is heading to Iowa City next month to speak at the University of Iowa. The university’s John Pappajohn Entrepreneurial Center is hosting ENTREdays, a three-day series of events to celebrate entrepreneurship.”

The Register article quoted Hoffman as saying: “One is you need to find a real problem to solve. I’m just being honest when I say, I get so many entrepreneurs now that come to me and say ‘here’s what I’m working on’ and it’s a solution looking for a problem … The first thing is looking at the environment around you and trying to find something you can make better, a problem you can fix or an opportunity you see.

“The other way is to have an actual purpose: Why are you doing this? What are you trying to achieve and why is it important? The entrepreneurs who are driven by passion and purpose, those are the ones who far outperform the ones who were just doing it for a paycheck.”

When asked about how to keep a startup going, Hoffman noted that, “The first thing is customer intimacy. What I mean by that is getting out of your office, getting into the problem…the more time you spend out of the office and in the problem around the people who are dealing with that problem and meeting the people who you expect to be your customers the more longevity you will have.”

In a reply to a question about any potential stigma associated with a startup in the Midwest, Hoffman indicated that, ” In the past, the reason it was easier to do things in Silicon Valley and they had the advantage was the knowledge on how to launch tech companies and the tech skills for everything were centered around there. … there’s just no need to be in Silicon Valley anymore. You can launch a tech company with the right skills and the right people in Des Moines just like you could anywhere else now.”

Recall also that some entrepreneurs have analyzed the high cost of wages and real-estate in the Bay Area, which has been an impetus for some to consider locating in less expensive markets.

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Legal Issues Regarding Syngenta’s Handling of GMO Corn

DTN writer Todd Neeley reported earlier this week that, “A federal judge last week dismissed claims made by a group of farmers in a class action lawsuit against Syngenta that the company should have done something to inspect and keep harvested Viptera and Duracade GMO MIR162 corn from being shipped to China.

“The action was at least a partial victory for Syngenta. However, multiple lawsuits challenging the company on its handling of the GMO corn will continue, according to a legal expert who has been following the cases.”

Mr. Neeley noted that, “Syngenta faces an ongoing legal battle after developing MIR162 genetic traits marketed under the brand name Viptera and in Viptera/Duracade stacks. USDA deregulated the products in 2013 and Syngenta moved ahead to commercially sell the seeds even though MIR162 had not been approved in China. In November 2013, China began rejecting any U.S. corn exports that tested positive for MIR162. That went on until China eventually approved the trait in December 2014.”

“Plaintiffs have claimed Syngenta misled the public and made misrepresentations to the public and USDA concerning the status and likelihood of Chinese approval and their effects on export markets. Plaintiffs also claimed Syngenta’s actions increased the risks of contamination and commingling of corn,” the DTN article said.

Mr. Neeley added that, “In a statement to DTN, Syngenta hailed last week’s ruling as a victory.

“‘The Aug. 17 ruling in the Viptera China lawsuits significantly narrows the case against Syngenta,’ the company said. ‘For example, the ruling confirms that federal law bars ‘any claim against Syngenta based on a duty to make sure that Viptera corn is segregated from other corn.’ The court also agreed with Syngenta that ‘there is no basis for Syngenta’s liability based in false representations or omissions of fact in communications with plaintiffs,’ and, therefore, rejected plaintiffs’ claim for negligent misrepresentation.

“‘Although the litigation will continue to proceed, this is an important step forward as we continue to defend the rights of American farmers to have access to safe, effective, U.S.-approved agricultural technologies like Agrisure Viptera.’

“The goal for Syngenta in the legal proceedings, [Donald L. Swanson, an attorney with Omaha-based Koley Jessen PC, LLO] said, is to essentially eliminate all of the legal claims in the case, while the plaintiffs are working to put at least one claim before a jury.”

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