Dream Town: Chinese City Lavishes Resources on Start-Ups

Michael Schuman reported on the front page of the business section in Sunday’s New York Times that, “In Dream Town, a collection of boxy office buildings on the gritty edge of this historic city [Hangzhou, China], one tiny company is developing a portable 3-D printer. Another takes orders for traditional Chinese massages by smartphone. They are just two of the 710 start-ups being nurtured here.

“Anywhere else, an incubator like Dream Town would be a vision of venture capitalists, angel investors or technology stalwarts. But this is China. The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t trust the invisible hand of capitalism alone to encourage entrepreneurship, especially since it is a big part of the leadership’s strategy to reshape the sagging economy.

“Which is why the government of Hangzhou — a former royal capital that has been a major commercial hub for more than a millennium — built Dream Town and lavishes resources on start-ups. The businesses here get a slate of benefits like subsidized rent, cash handouts and special training, all courtesy of the city.”

The Times article noted that, “For much of China’s long economic boom, young people flocked to manufacturing zones for jobs making bluejeans or iPhones. But today China is trying to move beyond just being the world’s factory floor. Policy makers want the next generation to find better-paying work in modern offices, creating the ideas, technologies and jobs to feed the country’s future growth.

“Premier Li Keqiang frequently calls for ‘mass entrepreneurship.’ In March at the National People’s Congress, he bragged that 12,000 new companies were founded each day in 2015.

“The entrepreneurial embrace comes with lots of financial support. Across the country, officials are creating investment funds, providing cash subsidies and building incubators.”

Mr. Schuman explained that, “Some economists and entrepreneurs are concerned that the government is helping fuel a frenzy that might ultimately result in failed businesses, wasted resources and financial losses. Just one city, Suzhou, near Shanghai, has announced it will open 300 incubators by 2020 to house 30,000 start-ups.”

Sunday’s New York Times article noted that, “Hangzhou is a natural center for China’s start-up fever. After China embraced capitalist reform in the 1980s, Zhejiang province, of which Hangzhou is the capital, emerged as a leading base for the export industries that fueled the country’s rapid growth. Factories pumped out products like socks and plastic Christmas trees.

“Now that zeal for commerce is being channeled into technology start-ups. Hangzhou is home to China’s most famous internet company, the e-commerce giant Alibaba, which has become a training ground for would-be entrepreneurs.

“The neighborhoods near Alibaba’s sprawling campus, once a poorly developed area on the city’s outskirts, now make up a budding tech center with newly built office parks like Dream Town, dominated by ambitious college graduates, angel investors and venture capitalists.”

And Mr. Schuman added that, “Hangzhou represents what Chinese leaders see as the nation’s economic future. The country used to generate astronomical growth rates by depending heavily on low-cost exports and extremely high investment in apartment towers, factories and highways. China built so many steel mills that it can produce 10 times as much steel as the United States.

“But today, costs are rising, eating away at the competitiveness of many export industries. The long investment boom has saddled the economy with too many factories and a mountain of debt.

“Instead, policy makers are encouraging a shift to new growth engines, like services and high tech. The entrepreneurial focus is providing an economic boost for Hangzhou.”

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Lawmaker: Executive Branch Sage Grouse Conservation Plan a De Facto Endangered Species Listing

Associated Press writer Dan Elliott reported late last week that, “Federal land managers issued guidelines Thursday for restricting energy development, livestock grazing and other activities on public land in the West to protect the greater sage grouse, part of a broad effort to save the bird without resorting to listing it as an endangered species.

“The Bureau of Land Management guidelines tell field employees when and how to apply new rules under a sweeping conservation plan announced last year.

“That plan is designed to keep the distinctive ground-dwelling bird from being listed as endangered or threatened, which could bring down tougher restrictions and provoke a political backlash against the Endangered Species Act.”

However, the AP article noted that, “But Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources, denounced the guidelines and called the sage grouse conservation plan a ploy by the Obama administration to block energy development and commandeer state conservation plans.

“‘These plans, written as if the sage grouse were listed, are proof it was an underhanded, de facto listing scheme that further oppresses Western states,’ Bishop said in a written statement.”

Mr. Elliot added that, “The guidelines instruct BLM staff to review livestock grazing permits in the most sensitive areas first, to see if new protections are needed.

“The guidelines cover about 95,000 square miles of land overseen by the BLM. The U.S. Forest Service and state agencies are drawing up their own plans for land they manage.”

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The Agricultural Economy and the Next Farm Bill

Bloomberg writer Alan Bjerga reported yesterday that, “Farmers got good news from the government this week — and not just in the form of cheese. Two USDA reports showed increasing exports and less-than-expected decreases in this year’s farm net-income.

“That’s good for profits. It further complicates the trillion-dollar farm-bill debate due after the 2016 elections.”

Mr. Bjerga explained that, “Farm bills, which largely pay for food stamps but politically are fought over subsidy checks that mainly go to growers of corn, soybeans, wheat and other commodity crops, invariably are written to reflect current economic conditions in agriculture.

“The 2014 version of the law allowed Congress to create programs that spent less during the record-profit era that spawned them, but more when harder times returned. When farmer profits appear to be falling to less than half their annual peaks, efforts to make farm programs more generous gain support — and advocates have numbers to back them up.

“But higher profits weaken that argument. Sure, $71.5 billion in profits are still down 42 percent from the 2013 record, the USDA said earlier this week, but that total would have been considered healthy before the boom, which is now widely seen as an anomaly. And despite the lack of a Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, exports are up, and the U.S. agricultural trade surplus is back on the rise.”

The Bloomberg update added that, “What’s been a bad-news narrative in agriculture has become a less-bad news narrative. That doesn’t mean farm programs won’t be changed — they always are — but which direction the spending will go is less certain.”

And recall also this week, that a ten-year baseline update from the Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri indicated that the 2016/17 marketing year average price of corn would only be $3.19 per bushel.  The report added that, “Projected average soybean prices remain below $10.00 per bushel over the next five years.”

At least one farmer noted recently in The Wall Street Journal that: “We cannot withstand $4 a bushel corn;” and, a recent DTN article pointed out that, “University of Illinois economist Gary Schnitkey agrees most cash renters need closer to $4 corn to break even. But if corn prices average only $3.50 per bushel next season — with no farm program payments on the horizon — even many high-yielding 200-bushel Illinois farms could lose $65 an acre on $245 cash rent, Schnitkey estimates.”

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Relationships Between FinTech Startups and Traditional Banks Evolving

Telis Demos reported earlier this week at The Wall Street Journal Online that, “Transferwise Inc., the global money transfer startup, is getting ready to free itself from relying on banks.”

The Journal article explained that, “This is the latest example of the evolving and complex relationship between aspiring fintech disruptors and traditional banks. While many startups seek to displace banks, they also often rely on them for access to the financial backbones of payments, lending, or deposits.”

Demos pointed out that, “Transferwise says it is ‘peer to peer,’ pairing customers who are sending money to or receiving it across borders. It charges a small fee to make the match and exchanges money at the prevailing market rate.

“Working with banks to do so enabled Transferwise to grow to billions of dollars worth of transfers annually. But it also created problems, especially in the U.S. where money transfers are overseen by each state.”

The Journal article noted that, “The company has been getting state licenses since last year. It also announced in August that it could directly access the U.K.’s real-time payment system, though for now it still requires a small bank partner to do so.

“Such moves will allow the company to scale back its reliance on banks when moving money, except as back-ups. Taavet Hinrikus, CEO and co-founder, said Transferwise had always aimed to eventually seek its own licenses. This requires the firm to do things like check to make sure people sending money aren’t criminals and ensure senders have the money in their accounts. Transferwise said it already was doing such checks itself, and had viewed bank partnerships as a stepping stone.”

Demos added that, “In the U.S., Transferwise now has licenses in 37 states, and can operate independently in three states that don’t require licenses. In other states it will continue to use its bank partner.”

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University of Missouri Baseline Update for U.S. Ag Markets- Farmers Focus on Cutting Costs

The University of Missouri’s Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) updated its baseline for U.S. agricultural markets yesterday.

In part, the FAPRI report indicated that, “Increases in production result in continued downward pressure on prices for most crop and livestock commodities in 2016. This report provides an update of the 2016 FAPRI‐MU long‐term baseline to reflect information available in mid‐August 2016.”

“Record U.S. and world corn crops push corn prices lower, to $3.19 per bushel for the 2016/17 marketing year average. Projected prices begin to recover in 2017/18 with reduced acreage and lower yields, but remain below $3.90 per bushel through 2021/22,” the report said; while adding that, “Projected average soybean prices remain below $10.00 per bushel over the next five years.”

Table from Updated FAPRI Baseline

Yesterday’s baseline update also pointed out that, “Ethanol production growth has slowed in recent years. Projected declines in gasoline consumption and assumptions about implementation of the renewable fuel standard (RFS) result in only small increases in projected U.S. ethanol production.

“Increased supplies of beef, pork, poultry and milk have pushed prices lower. Fed cattle prices are down by more than $20 per hundredweight this year compared to 2015, and further declines are projected until prices reach their low point in 2020.”

Recall that earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected continued weakness in farm sector income: “Net cash farm income is expected to fall by 13.3 percent in 2016, while net farm income is forecast to decline by 11.5 percent.”

Producers appear to be responding to the lower market returns by reducing production costs as much as possible.

Christopher Doering and Donnelle Eller reported on the front page of yesterday’s Des Moines Register that, “Farm income losses this year should be less than expected, as farmers throughout the Corn Belt slash expenses in response to a prolonged slump in commodity prices.”

The Register writers indicated that, “Farmers such as Bob Bowman are doing whatever they can to bring down their costs. The corn and soybean farmer near DeWitt said he’s not making any ‘unnecessary’ capital purchases such as equipment upgrades and is spending only when something breaks or has to be replaced.

“‘It’s going to be close; we might not cover all of our depreciation,’ Bowman said of his razor-thin profit margin. ‘It’s definitely going to be a really lean year.’

“As a result of those more frugal choices, production expenses are expected to be $27.7 billion less than the USDA forecast in February, with farm expenses now forecast at $348.7 billion.”

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South Dakota Farmer Asks U.S. Supreme Court to Examine Wetlands Case

DTN writer Todd Neeley reported today that, “Winter dumps piles of snow nearly every year along a tree belt near an 0.8-acre tract of land on Arlen Foster’s farm in Miner County, South Dakota, in the southeastern part of the state.

“Spring melt drains onto his field, often making it impossible to farm.

“Such is life in the Prairie Pothole region, where centuries ago glacial formations carved into the land.”

Mr. Neeley noted that, “The 0.8 acres was declared a wetland based on a USDA process that Foster is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review.

“The Natural Resources Conservation Service, or NRCS, faces a backlog of requests for wetlands determinations, leaving some landowners waiting for years.”

The DTN article explained that, “‘We requested determinations on tracts of our land,’ Foster said in an interview with DTN. ‘NRCS seems to have trouble with following procedure. We have a right to accurate, timely determinations.’

“NRCS instead used a comparison site to make a determination, Foster said. This deprives him of his rights, he contends in his appeal. Such comparisons are allowed by NRCS procedures.”

“Foster said the NRCS didn’t consider evidence the .8 acres is not an actual wetland. Instead, the NRCS deemed the land was similar to a known wetland more than 30 miles away,” the DTN article said.

Mr. Neeley also stated that, “Wetland conservation provisions in the Food Security Act place no restrictions on farming wetlands if natural conditions allow for it. The wetlands provision prohibits converting wetlands to crop production by draining, filling or other means.

“‘Production of an agricultural commodity on such land is possible as a result of a natural condition, such as drought, and it is determined that the actions of the person producing such agricultural commodity does not permanently alter or destroy natural wetland characteristics,’ the FSA provision reads.

“Foster argues in his petition the 0.8 acres is not a natural wetland.”

Today’s DTN article added that, “The Pacific Legal Foundation asked the Supreme Court to consider a number of questions, including whether the use of a comparison site selected a decade ago to make the wetlands determination violates Foster’s Fifth Amendment rights to due process.”

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Service-Oriented Start-Up Washio Shuts Down

Shan Li reported in today’s Los Angeles Times that, “On-demand laundry and dry cleaning app Washio announced Monday it is shutting down, becoming the latest service-oriented start-up to wash out.

“The Santa Monica company expanded quickly to six cities after its launch in 2013, attracting time-crunched customers who wanted their laundry picked up, washed and delivered within 24 hours. Despite raising nearly $17 million in funding, the three founders wrote on the Washio website that they had been forced to close its doors.”

Today’s article explained that, “Several on-demand start-ups, which seek to deliver products or services at the tap of a button, have folded or struggled recently. In 2014, rival laundry start-up Prim called it quits. Last year, home cleaning service Homejoy shut down after facing lawsuits alleging its workers should be considered employees, rather than independent contractors…[A]nalysts said it can be extremely difficult for on-demand services to make money and hard to maintain high quality. Washio was charging $2.19 a pound for washing and folding clothing, along with a $5.99 delivery fee.”

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Ag-Tech Accelerator in Iowa Gets Backing from Deere, and DuPont Pioneer

Matthew Patane reported in today’s Des Moines Register that, “Two heavyweights in agriculture and major employers in Iowa are backing a new home for technology startups in their field.

“Equipment maker Deere & Co. and seed company DuPont Pioneer are two of four initial investors in an agriculture-technology accelerator, a startup development program slated for central Iowa.

“Farm insurer Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Co. and Peoples Co., a land management and brokerage firm, have also signed on as investors.”

The Register article stated that, “All four companies will put up $100,000 each for the first year of the accelerator.”

Mr. Patane indicated that, “The Greater Des Moines Partnership announced the investors during the Farm Progress Show Tuesday.

“The Partnership is basing the ag-tech accelerator on the Global Insurance Accelerator, a similar program based in Des Moines that hosted its first cohort in 2015. Both accelerators are intended to feed off of two of the region’s core industries: agriculture and financial services.”

Today’s article added that, “The ag-tech accelerator also hopes to tap into a growing field of startups and investment. Companies and investors nationwide have set their eyes on the sector.

“For instance, investments in food and agriculture-technology startups rose to $4.6 billion last year, according to AgFunder. In the first half of 2016, that number was $1.8 billion.”

In addition, the Register article noted that, “Iowa State University has already established an agricultural accelerator, Ag Startup Engine.

“Mike Colwell, who runs the Partnership’s entrepreneurial initiatives and helped organize both accelerators, said the investors will decide which startups enter the program. It will likely focus on hardware and software, he said.”

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Millennials Concerned About Home Prices Rising Too High

Steven Russolillo reported in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal that, “By some measures in the U.S., there has never been a better time to own a home. Wages are rising, unemployment is falling and interest rates are hovering near record lows.”

The Journal article noted that, “And yet, all of that is little solace to adults who haven’t yet stepped on the housing ladder’s first rung. Their caution has helped drag the homeownership rate to a record low.

“A new study by national realtor Redfin found affordability was the biggest concern among all U.S. home buyers. The results were even more striking among Americans 35 and younger. One-third of surveyed millennials said the fact that ‘prices are rising or are too high’ was their biggest concern. That was more than double the next biggest worry—competition.”

Mr. Russolillo also pointed out that, “Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen sent a strong signal last week that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates again, perhaps even next month.

“In the affordability equation, an uptick in rates can’t be ignored. If 30-year mortgage rates rise by 1 percentage point a year from now and home prices hold steady, a monthly mortgage payment could jump by about 13%.

“Expect the ranks of homeowners to keep dwindling.”

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Venture Capital Funding– “Ad Tech,” vs. “Marketing Tech”

Jack Marshall reported in Monday’s Wall Street Journal that, “If you’re trying to secure millions of dollars in venture capital, these days it may be better to pitch your business as ‘marketing tech‘ rather than ‘ad tech.’

“It has become increasingly difficult for advertising technology companies to raise money in recent years, but funding for companies in the closely-related marketing technology sector appears to be as healthy as ever.”

Mr. Marshall explained that, “U.S. venture-capital firms invested around $860 million in ad tech firms last year, the lowest amount since 2010 and down considerably from a peak of more than $2.7 billion in 2011, according to venture capital and private equity data company PitchBook. So far this year, only $446 million has been committed, on pace for the lowest funding level since 2005.

“But PitchBook data suggest U.S. venture capital investment for marketing technology companies has been steadier, reaching over $1.2 billion last year. Investment this year was already close to $1 billion by Aug. 23, according to PitchBook, on pace to surpass last year.”

The Wall Street Journal article noted that, “Why the divergence? One key factor is the business models that power these companies, venture capitalists say.

“Advertising technology took off on the promise to automate the buying and targeting of ads across the web. Such companies have typically relied on ‘media-based’ business models, whereby they collect revenue based on the volume of advertising they purchase and place on behalf of clients. They often sell to third parties in the ad ecosystem like marketers’ ad agencies, as opposed to the marketers themselves.

“By contrast, many marketing tech companies have instead focused on selling software on a subscription basis, often directly to marketers. The recurring and relatively predictable software-as-a-service revenue model is often more attractive to investors because it’s less exposed to fluctuations in ad spending and other market dynamics.”

Mr. Marshall added that, “Another consideration for early-stage investors is their potential exit. For many marketing and ad tech companies, the goal is to ultimately sell to a larger player.

“Terry Kawaja, chief executive of LUMA Partners, which has offered strategic advice to numerous advertising and marketing-related technology companies, said there’s a wider pool of potential buyers for marketing technology companies than for advertising technology ones. That makes them more attractive to venture capitalists.”

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